Timing Matters

Friday, January 23, 2026

Just a bit more than a week ago, it feels much longer than that so I was pleased when I checked the date, I compared the current Iranian regime with some of the great mass killers of history.  I ended that post saying, “But make no mistake, this is no longer a matter of foreign policy – this is a matter of morality, of standing for what is right in the world.”  Not long after I wrote that President Trump said the killing had stopped and Iran has not been much discussed since.  It is my prayer that this silence and lack of action is strategic and not simply pragmatic.

President Trump is a pragmatist and in a situation like this “in for a penny, in for a pound” so there are many careful considerations, much planning necessary, and much coordination with our regional allies.  It seems to me that the Abraham Accords were the perfect set-up for just this situation, leaving Iran now virtually surrounded.  The geopolitical and military reasons for deliberate slowness are very real – but it is hard to be patient as the few reports emerging from Iran are dire.

For one thing, Iran is growing defiant:

Iran’s top prosecutor denies a claim by US President Donald Trump that his intervention halted the execution of 800 people detained in nationwide protests, calling his comments “completely false.”

The news agency of Iran’s judiciary, Mizan, quotes Mohammad Movahedi as making the comment. It again calls into question whether there will be mass executions over the nationwide protests. Officials have already said some detainees face death penalty charges.

The peace and quiet on which Trump is relying may be temporary or false as news out of that nation grows increasingly hard to obtain.  The Times of Israel has managed to get it hands on the accounts of one protester in Iran and they are not pretty.  For one thing, these accounts were difficult to obtain:

The Times of Israel was able to reach Ali through Shervin Savadkoohi, an Iranian political exile and monarchist activist living in the United Kingdom, who has been working to get Iranians’ stories out amid regime efforts to quash accounts of what is happening inside the country.

But more important is this:

“The city smells of blood and death. Everyone carries grief in their hearts,” Ali, a pseudonym, told the Times of Israel on Monday.

Speaking as demonstrations appeared to have been halted by a brutal crackdown that saw thousands massacred by regime forces, Ali said protesters were hoping that both the United States and Israel would come to their aid by launching military action to assist in overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

We are on a razors edge here.  We do not want to simply end the Iranian regime and end up nation building, our strategic aim is for something more organic to occur.  But it would seem the organic activity lies in wait of and hope for some action on our part.  The more we delay, even for very good reasons, the more that hope subsides and the less effective our actions, whatever they end up being, will be.  Our goal is to enable to protesters, but the protesters are being quashed and soon they will be destroyed or completely disheartened.  There will be nothing to enable.

And if these enabling efforts fail, or are never taken, we will have lost much credibility and even more moral authority.  This administration has worked so hard, and to date so well, to reestablish America’s standing in this world.  I would hate to lose it now.